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As Marks and Smith say, "This extreme assumption is never included in the presentation of the two-child problem, however, and is surely not what people have in mind when they present it.

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We think of your wager as investment that will increase in value as good news arrives.

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Ex 16.1, 6 - Chapter 16 Class 11 Probability

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From Bayes' Theorem that the probability of two boys, given that one boy was born on a Tuesday is given by:.

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Smith has two children, and one of them is a boy, but also that the boy was born on a Tuesday: does this change the previous analyses?

Description: On the other hand if we learn that at least one of two children is a boy, our investment increases as if we had wagered on this question.

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