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As Marks and Smith say, "This extreme assumption is never included in the presentation of the two-child problem, however, and is surely not what people have in mind when they present it.
We think of your wager as investment that will increase in value as good news arrives.
Ex 16.1, 6 - Chapter 16 Class 11 Probability
From Bayes' Theorem that the probability of two boys, given that one boy was born on a Tuesday is given by:.
Smith has two children, and one of them is a boy, but also that the boy was born on a Tuesday: does this change the previous analyses?
Description: On the other hand if we learn that at least one of two children is a boy, our investment increases as if we had wagered on this question.